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Turkish Central Bank revises inflation forecasts for 2023, 2024

Year-end inflation rate expected at 65% this year, 36% next year, and 14% in 2025

Türkiye’s Central Bank on Thursday revised its year-end inflation forecast upwards for 2023 and 2024 while cutting it for 2025.

The annual consumer inflation is foreseen to come in at 65% this year, up from 58% the previous forecast, Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan told a meeting held to release the bank’s fourth quarterly inflation report this year.

The governor said inflation rate will fluctuate between 62% and 68% through to the end of 2023.

This revision was mainly led by higher food and energy import prices this year, she stressed.

The end-2024 forecast was hiked to 36%, up 3 percentage points from the previous projection, Erkan noted.

On the other hand, year-end inflation forecast for 2025 was cut to 14% from 15%.

According to latest data from TurkStat, Türkiye’s annual inflation rate rose for the third consecutive month to 61.53% in September, the highest level this year.

This hike was led by “simultaneous large shocks” such as surge in fuel prices, hike in currency basket and tax adjustments to meet the February 6 earthquakes-driven financial needs.

“We are determined to establish disinflation in the second half of next year,”Erkan underlined.

She also stressed that the Turkish Central Bank’s gross international assets has risen $28 billion compared to the end of May to surpass $126 billion as of Oct 20., thanks to the new economy administration’s steps.

Source: aa

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