May 6, 2026
British banking giant Barclays has advised investors to close their long positions in the Turkish lira, citing rising global energy prices and increasing risks to Türkiye’s economic outlook.
Shift in Strategy
In a recent research note, Barclays strategists reversed their previously positive stance on the Turkish lira, which they had maintained since March 2025. The bank now recommends that investors unwind “long” (buy-side) positions that were based on expectations of further appreciation in the currency.
This move follows similar steps by other global institutions, signaling a broader shift in sentiment toward the lira.
النفط Prices Driving Concern
Barclays highlighted the surge in oil prices as a key risk factor. Analysts warned that higher energy costs could widen Türkiye’s current account deficit, given the country’s heavy dependence on energy imports.
The bank noted that Türkiye’s external balance is particularly sensitive to oil price increases, making the currency more vulnerable under current global conditions.
Pressure on Currency Outlook
According to the report, rising energy prices could weaken the Turkish lira’s outlook and increase pressure on the country’s exchange rate policy.
Strategists emphasized that the existing policy framework—based on gradual nominal depreciation—may face sustainability challenges if the current account deteriorates further.
End of Positive Outlook
Barclays also announced that it has ended its recommendation for short positions in the euro/TL pair, effectively closing previous trade strategies linked to the lira.
The decision reflects growing concerns that recent gains in the lira—supported by real appreciation over the past year—may be difficult to maintain in the face of external shocks such as rising oil prices.
Source: Patronlar Dünyası/ Prepared by: İlayda Gök