The Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (BETAM) forecasts that the Turkish economy will grow by 5.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025.
According to BETAM’s latest report, this estimate is based on preliminary indicators for April, May, and partially released data for June. The analysis suggests a robust recovery compared to the same period last year.
When adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, GDP is projected to increase by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2025.
Imports and Public Spending in Focus
The report highlights a 5.5% quarter-on-quarter rise in imports of consumer goods, indicating stronger domestic demand. However, public consumption expenditures and special consumption tax (SCT) revenues are expected to decline by 2.7% in the same period.
On a yearly basis, BETAM anticipates:
- A 16.3% increase in consumer goods imports,
- An 8.2% rise in the production index of non-durable consumer goods,
- And a 6.8% decrease in consumer loans, pointing to more cautious household borrowing behavior.
Overall, the second-quarter outlook suggests that private sector activity remains the main driver of economic growth, despite a slowdown in public sector demand.
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Source: Bloomberght/ Prepared by: İlayda Gök