ISTANBUL — The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has analyzed developments in housing supply and regional rent inflation following the February 6, 2023 earthquakes, highlighting the role of lost housing stock and migration in driving rent increases.
The analysis, titled “Developments in Housing Supply and Regional Rent Inflation in the Earthquake Zone,” was prepared by researchers Ali Arda Dalseçkin, Süreyya Güder Köşgeroğlu and Muhammed Hamza Kayrıcı from the CBRT’s General Directorate of Structural Economic Research and published on the bank’s blog, Merkezin Güncesi.
Housing Losses Pushed Rents Higher
The analysis noted that rent inflation has been one of the most persistent components during Türkiye’s disinflation process. The loss of housing stock following the earthquakes and migration from the affected region to other provinces played a significant role in this trend.
The sharp decline in housing stock in the earthquake zone led to a rapid increase in rents. The impact was not limited to the earthquake-hit provinces, however. Migration increased demand for rental housing in provinces that received displaced residents, pushing rents higher there as well.
Reconstruction Boosts Housing Supply
A large-scale, government-led reconstruction effort subsequently accelerated the recovery of housing supply in the earthquake zone.
The number of earthquake homes completed by the Housing Development Administration of Türkiye (TOKİ) reached around 201,000 at the beginning of 2025 and approximately 434,000 by the end of the year.
The CBRT noted that TOKİ had produced around 213,000 homes during the three years before the earthquakes, meaning the post-earthquake construction effort represented a significant increase in housing supply.
The earthquake zone’s share of building occupancy permits across Türkiye also rose from an average of around 12% before the earthquakes to more than 20% in 2025.
Rent Inflation Slows as Housing Supply Recovers
According to the analysis, online rental listing data show that rent inflation in earthquake-hit provinces was significantly higher than in other provinces in 2023 and 2024.
However, rent inflation began to slow in 2025 as the delivery of new homes accelerated. The CBRT said the data indicate that the rental increases triggered by the loss of housing supply after the earthquakes began to lose momentum as housing supply recovered.
The effect also became visible in provinces indirectly affected by the earthquakes. Rent inflation in these provinces, which had remained close to that of other provinces in 2024 and 2025, was significantly lower in 2026.
The CBRT suggested that the recovery in housing supply in the earthquake zone may gradually be reducing rental demand in provinces that previously received displaced residents, as some households return to their home provinces.
Impact Could Extend Beyond Earthquake Zone
The analysis also pointed to a potential broader impact from the ongoing reconstruction process.
As earthquake-related construction projects near completion, construction-sector employment has begun to decline in the earthquake zone while increasing rapidly in other provinces. According to the CBRT, this indicates that construction capacity is beginning to shift outside the earthquake zone, potentially spreading the increase in housing supply to a wider geographic area.
The bank expects the impact of reconstruction on rental dynamics to continue beyond the delivery of earthquake homes. As the return migration process unfolds over time, the increase in housing supply is likely to continue putting downward pressure on rent increases both in the earthquake zone and in indirectly affected provinces.
Overall, the CBRT concluded that the recovery in housing supply could become one of the factors supporting a further slowdown in rent inflation in the period ahead.
Source: Patronlar Dünyası/ Prepared by: İlayda Gök