CBRT to Announce Key Interest Rate Decision on September 19, 2024
Investors and analysts are eagerly awaiting the Central Bank of Türkiye’s (CBRT) interest rate decision for September 2024. The decision, which will be revealed on September 19 at 2:00 PM, is expected to have significant implications for various sectors, including foreign exchange, gold, and the stock market.
According to a survey conducted by AA Finance, all participating economists predict that the CBRT will keep the policy rate unchanged at 50%.
Economists’ Interest Rate Forecast
In the CBRT’s most recent survey, a group of 15 economists provided insights into their expectations for the policy rate:
- Median forecast: 50% (unchanged)
- Range of year-end forecasts:
- 2 economists expect the rate to remain at 50%
- 2 economists forecast 47.5%
- 1 economist predicts 46.5%
- 5 economists foresee 45%
These expectations reflect growing uncertainty as inflationary pressures continue to shape the monetary policy landscape.
CBRT’s Meeting Schedule
- Next Meeting Date: September 19, 2024
- Time: 14:00 local time
- Expected Outcome: Policy rate to remain at 50%
The CBRT’s decision will follow its previous meeting, where the policy rate was also held steady at 50%. This level, economists suggest, aligns with current inflationary trends and economic growth forecasts.
Economic Growth and Inflation Outlook
The expectations for the upcoming CBRT meeting are not only focused on interest rates but also on broader economic indicators. Key trends include:
- GDP Growth:
- Forecast for 2024 lowered from 3.4% to 3.2%
- 2025 growth forecast revised from 3.5% to 3.4%
- Inflation Projections:
- Current interest rate expectation: 50%
- 3-month forecast: 46.48%
- 12-month forecast: 31.66%
These adjustments signal caution among policymakers as inflationary pressures ease, yet risks remain due to fluctuating global economic conditions.
Impact on Markets and Investors
The CBRT’s interest rate decision is being closely watched by investors in the following sectors:
- Foreign Exchange Market:
With the Turkish lira maintaining its recent levels, the CBRT’s decision will affect currency traders and those holding foreign assets. - Gold and Precious Metals:
Interest rate policies often correlate with gold prices. As the rate remains stable, gold prices may continue to see slow but steady fluctuations in response to global economic signals. - Stock Market:
The Borsa İstanbul is also likely to react to the CBRT’s rate announcement, especially in sectors sensitive to monetary policy such as banking, real estate, and energy.
Key Economic Indicators to Watch
In the lead-up to the September 19 meeting, several economic reports will shape market expectations, including:
- Eurozone Industrial Production
- U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
- Global Producer Price Index (PPI) Data
Each of these indicators can have an indirect impact on the CBRT’s decision, as global economic trends often influence local monetary policy.
CBRT’s Previous Policy Moves
The CBRT has been consistent in its approach this year, opting to keep the interest rate at 50% during its last meeting. However, some economists are projecting a gradual reduction in the rate towards the end of 2024 and into 2025, as inflationary concerns ease and global market stability improves.
Summary of Expectations
- Current Policy Rate: 50%
- Predicted Rate for September: No change expected
- Economist Year-End Forecasts: Median rate of 46.65%
Investors and market participants will closely watch the CBRT’s decision on September 19, 2024. With the likelihood of the rate remaining steady, focus will shift to future moves as inflation and economic growth indicators continue to evolve.
Source: NTV / Prepared by Irem Yildiz