A new analysis by the UK-based think tank Chatham House outlines which countries and actors could potentially benefit—and which could suffer—if a large-scale war involving Iran were to occur.
According to the report, such a conflict would reshape geopolitical balances in the Middle East and beyond, affecting global energy markets, regional alliances, and international security dynamics.
Potential Winners
Israel
The report suggests that Israel could emerge as one of the primary beneficiaries if Iran’s military capabilities and regional influence were significantly weakened.
Iran is seen as Israel’s main strategic rival in the region, and a successful campaign against Iranian military infrastructure or nuclear capabilities could reduce the long-term security threat to Israel.
Gulf Energy Exporters
Energy-exporting countries in the Gulf could also benefit economically from rising oil and gas prices triggered by conflict.
States such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar could see increased revenues if disruptions to regional supply push global energy prices higher.
Some Global Energy Producers
Outside the Middle East, major oil and gas exporters—such as Russia, Norway, and Canada—could also gain financially from higher energy prices as markets seek alternative suppliers.
Potential Losers
Iran
The report notes that Iran itself would likely suffer the most direct consequences.
Large-scale strikes could damage infrastructure, weaken the country’s military capabilities, and intensify internal economic and political pressure.
Regional Stability
A broader Middle East conflict could destabilize neighboring countries, including Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, where Iranian influence and proxy groups operate.
The Global Economy
The global economy could also be among the major losers.
A conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz—a key shipping route for global oil and gas—could disrupt energy supplies and trigger sharp price increases, affecting economies worldwide.
Uncertain Outcome
Experts stress that war outcomes are rarely clear-cut. Even if certain countries gain strategic advantages, the overall impact could still be destabilizing for the region and the global economy.
The Chatham House analysis concludes that while some states might benefit politically or economically, a war with Iran would likely create widespread geopolitical and economic risks.
Source: Patronlar Dünyası/ Prepared by: İlayda Gök