Commerzbank Forecasts End-of-Year Dollar Rate at ₺35 for 2024

Commerzbank predicts a year-end exchange rate of ₺35 per US Dollar for 2024, citing stable inflation trends and commitment to traditional economic policies.

Commerzbank, headquartered in Germany, has projected a year-end exchange rate of 35 Turkish Lira (TL) per US Dollar (USD) for 2024. The bank emphasized that moderate inflation trends in the coming months are expected to persist, with assurances of adherence to conventional economic policies. Commerzbank’s Emerging Markets Economist Tatha Ghose released a note today detailing the year-end forecast for TL/USD and the overall state of the Turkish economy.

Ghose noted the Turkish Lira’s stable trajectory following the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye’s increase in interest rates to 50%. Highlighting last month’s surprise downward inflation trend, Ghose also pointed out the recovery of the Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves. Ghose highlighted recent data from the US supporting the Lira and other emerging market currencies. While acknowledging lingering uncertainties in recent data, Ghose reaffirmed their year-end forecast of 35 for the Dollar/TL rate.

The note stated, “President Erdoğan and Minister Şimşek have assured the market of their commitment to traditional economic policies. The Central Bank’s management also anticipates a moderation in inflation in the coming months. This will be a critical test. Inflation may superficially slow due to base effects, but without fundamental easing, policymakers could face a new crisis of confidence. We maintain our ‘symbolic forecast’ of 35 for the Dollar/TL rate by the end of 2024.”

Source: / Prepared by Irem Yildiz

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