With population growth surpassing 3.8 million residents and the city entering its most active quarter of the year, analysts expect Q4 to maintain strong absorption levels across all segments
Dubai’s residential real estate market is expected to maintain steady momentum through Q4 2025, driven by a combination of population growth, visa accessibility and developer diversification across mid-market and premium segments, positioning the city for sustainable absorption.
In its latest report, Springfield Properties also noted that upcoming completions in 2026 are expected to moderate short-term price pressures, while new transport infrastructure including the Metro Blue Line will continue to unlock value in transit-oriented districts.
As interest rates stabilize and global capital flows remain strong, Dubai’s real estate market is set to sustain its reputation as one of the world’s most transparent, liquid and investor-friendly ecosystems.
Dubai’s population grows 4.47 percent
The strong projections for the end of the year come after Dubai’s real estate market continued to demonstrate strength and stability in October 2025, with total residential and commercial transactions reaching AED46.26 billion across 18,232 deals.
The emirate’s population rose by 4.47 percent over the past year, driven by an influx of skilled professionals, international investors and long-term residents leveraging Dubai’s evolving Golden Visa framework. Recent Golden Visa updates, including reduced property investment thresholds and streamlined family sponsorship options, have further deepened end-user engagement, broadening accessibility for permanent settlement and long-term ownership.
While total volumes maintained stability month-on-month and year-on-year, ready property transactions increased month-on-month, signaling continued appetite among end-users seeking completed homes amid stable financing conditions.
“The market remains underpinned by a clear shift toward mid-market and family-centric communities, where lifestyle infrastructure, proximity to schools and quality amenities continue to drive both absorption and resale performance. Dubai’s real estate sector continues to be defined by stability, liquidity and the alignment of infrastructure growth with lifestyle demand reinforcing its position as one of the most globally resilient residential markets,” said the report.
Off-plan transactions account for 71.4 percent of total activity
Off-plan transactions accounted for approximately 71.4 percent of total activity in October, reflecting the ongoing dominance of new launches and investor-led projects. However, the pace of new off-plan registrations moderated month-on-month as developers adjusted release schedules to align with buyer selectivity and affordability thresholds.
Meanwhile, the secondary market showed resilience, led by ready apartments in established master communities and increased first-time buyer activity following recent mortgage enhancements. Ready villas and townhouses also retained stable momentum, particularly within communities emphasizing space efficiency and long-term livability.
“Crossing AED46 billion in transaction value this month reinforces Dubai’s position as one of the world’s most resilient and desirable real estate markets. The momentum is now being driven by a healthy mix of end-user demand and long-term investor confidence. The market has matured price growth remains measured, supply pipelines are strategic, and buyer activity is diversified across both emerging and established communities,” said Farooq Syed, CEO of Springfield Properties.
Residential activity was led by mid-market and family-focused developments, supported by population growth of 4.47 percent year-on-year. Off-plan apartments averaged AED2,024 per sq.ft., while ready apartments averaged AED1,715 per sq.ft. Demand also strengthened for villas and townhouses, where livability and design efficiency continue to define buyer priorities.
Top performing areas emerge
The report also revealed that key areas sustaining transaction activity in October 2025 included both mature and emerging districts, with Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) retaining the lead in total volume. Activity also remained strong across waterfront and master-planned developments, particularly those benefiting from proximity to infrastructure projects such as the Metro Blue Line expansion.
Overall, transaction dispersion continues to favor projects offering balanced price points, strong developer reputations and integrated community amenities, added the report.3
Price performance in October remained within a narrow range across segments, indicating a balanced market environment. High-demand zones such as Palm Jumeirah, Downtown Dubai, and Dubai Hills Estate continued to outperform due to limited prime supply and lifestyle-driven end-user appeal, while mid-tier communities maintained price stability supported by rental yields and mortgage incentives.
Demand for commercial properties remains strong
On the commercial side, the Dubai real estate market recorded consistent leasing and investment activity, particularly across Grade A office spaces in Business Bay, DIFC and One Central. Warehouse and logistics facilities in Jebel Ali and Dubai South also saw sustained interest, reflecting Dubai’s role as a regional hub for trade and e-commerce growth.
“The data shows a market that’s expanding in both depth and direction. Developers are becoming more selective, aligning supply with affordability and lifestyle needs. This equilibrium is what ensures Dubai’s continued global appeal; a market built on fundamentals, not speculation,” Syed added.
Prime villa communities lead rental growth
Rental performance also remained robust, with 48,568 units rented in October and total rental value reaching AED4.37 billion, supported by continuous inflows of professionals and families. Prime villa communities such as Al Barari and MBR City led rental growth, while mid-market areas, including JVC and Dubai Hills Estate, saw steady absorption and attractive yields.
With population growth surpassing 3.8 million residents and the city entering its most active quarter of the year, analysts expect Q4 to maintain strong absorption levels across all segments. Dubai’s real estate market continues to distinguish itself through clarity, liquidity and long-term confidence positioning the emirate as one of the world’s most transparent and opportunity-rich property markets.
Source: economymiddleeast