ISTANBUL, September 4, 2026 — Optimism that geopolitical risks in the Black Sea region could ease has halted the recent rise in wheat prices, with expectations of a possible end to the Russia-Ukraine war weighing on the market.
Wheat prices, which reached $7.95 per bushel in July, their highest level since February 2023, have since retreated to around $7.53 per bushel.
Hopes for a lasting end to the Russia-Ukraine war increased after Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia and Ukraine should reach an agreement and that there was a chance for such a deal. His remarks about the possibility of a peace agreement triggered a sharp decline in wheat prices.
The prospect of peace has also fueled expectations that grain exports from Russia and Ukraine could become less disrupted. However, the absence of any concrete steps toward a settlement means uncertainty remains in the market.
Black Sea developments remain key
Futures and commodities market specialist Zafer Ergezen said wheat prices had staged a significant recovery recently, driven by several factors.
He pointed to attacks in the Black Sea and rising geopolitical risks, as well as the U.S./Israel-Iran war, higher transportation costs and increases in fuel and fertilizer prices as factors putting upward pressure on agricultural commodities.
Russia and Ukraine account for approximately 30% of global wheat trade, making developments in the Black Sea crucial for global wheat supplies.
Ergezen noted that the grain corridor established through Türkiye’s initiatives helped ease supply pressures in the wheat market. However, renewed attacks and rising tensions in the Black Sea subsequently pushed wheat prices higher.
Weather conditions are another major supply-side risk. Ergezen said the impact of El Niño, which has brought hotter and drier conditions, has increased concerns over lower crop yields.
Recent decline seen as profit-taking
Ergezen said wheat prices had declined somewhat this week, with the move driven more by easing geopolitical risks than by changes in demand.
He said stronger expectations that grain trade in the Black Sea would continue had triggered profit-taking in the market.
“I view the recent pullback as profit-taking. However, risks remain in the overall picture.”
Production costs, particularly for energy and fertilizer, continue to rise, putting further pressure on wheat production costs.
Ergezen also said El Niño-related supply risks remained in place and were expected to persist into early 2027.
Wheat prices expected to remain resilient
According to Ergezen, easing risks in the Black Sea could put downward pressure on wheat prices in the short term, but cost pressures across global agricultural commodities remain significant.
He highlighted the ongoing U.S./Israel-Iran war, elevated oil prices and persistently high fertilizer, transportation and insurance costs as additional risks for agricultural commodities, particularly wheat.
Despite the possibility of further short-term declines, Ergezen expects wheat prices to remain relatively strong in the coming period, with developments surrounding Black Sea grain trade and weather-related supply risks continuing to influence prices.
Source: Patronlar Dünyası/ Prepared by: İlayda Gök