September 13, 2026

Rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike increased selling pressure across commodity markets this week, as stronger inflationary pressures and heightened geopolitical tensions reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East, combined with U.S. inflation data indicating that price pressures remain persistent, boosted expectations of a Fed rate hike. Higher energy prices stemming from geopolitical developments in the Middle East continued to fuel inflationary pressures globally, while rising bond yields and stronger demand for the U.S. dollar weighed on commodity markets.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note approached 5% during the week, reaching its highest level since October 2023.

According to the latest macroeconomic data, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in August, in line with expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.3% month-on-month—above expectations—and rose 2.4% annually.

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.4% month-on-month in August, in line with forecasts, while its annual increase of 5.4% exceeded expectations.

Market pricing currently implies an 87% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week.

Precious Metals Under Pressure

A stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields put pressure on precious metal prices.

The European Central Bank (ECB) also drew attention to inflation risks after raising its policy rate for the second time since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East. Expectations that the ECB could maintain its tight monetary policy also contributed to declines in precious metals.

Analysts said that while their long-term outlook for gold remains positive, current geopolitical and macroeconomic developments are weighing on gold prices.

During the week, prices of precious metals declined on an ounce basis, with palladium falling 6.3%, silver 2.6%, platinum 1.2%, and gold 0.4%.

Base metals also recorded weekly declines in over-the-counter markets. Prices fell 2.2% for nickel, 1.8% for zinc, 1.6% for copper, 0.8% for lead, and 0.2% for aluminum, on a per-pound basis.

Copper, which approached a record high of $6.81 per pound during the week following reports that the U.S. would impose tariffs on imported refined copper, subsequently declined to around $6.47 after reports suggested that the tariffs could be postponed.

Geopolitical Risks Send Oil Prices Sharply Higher

In the energy market, Brent crude prices rose 7.6% on a weekly basis in the spot market, while natural gas prices fell 3% in British thermal unit terms.

Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran raised concerns that global oil supplies could be disrupted, triggering a sharp rise in oil prices.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised upward its forecasts for oil prices this year and next, citing the impact of disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East.

According to the EIA’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook, the average price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose to $91 per barrel in August.

Brent crude briefly reached $106.20 per barrel, its highest level since May 20, before settling around $101.70 on Friday following reports that Oman and Iran could reach an agreement to temporarily manage passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, rising U.S. natural gas inventories pushed natural gas prices lower.

Wheat Prices Fall on Hopes for Russia-Ukraine Peace

At the Chicago Board of Trade, prices fell 0.8% for soybeans, 0.9% for corn, and 1.1% for wheat on a per-bushel basis. Rice prices, meanwhile, increased 1.4% per hundredweight.

Soybean prices, which reached $13.3525 per bushel, their highest level since December 2023, later fell below $13 due to profit-taking.

On the Intercontinental Exchange, sugar prices rose 6% on a per-pound basis, while coffee declined 3.8% and cotton fell 0.2%. Cocoa prices dropped 4.4% per ton.

Steps toward a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine eased concerns over wheat supplies, putting downward pressure on wheat prices. Strong demand from China initially supported soybean prices, although profit-taking later weighed on the market.

Meanwhile, concerns over supply disruptions caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon triggered a sharp increase in sugar prices. Strong domestic demand in India and expectations of lower production in the European Union also supported sugar prices.

Expectations of higher coffee production in Brazil in 2027 contributed to the decline in coffee prices.

Despite a decline in cocoa production in Ivory Coast, forecasts that a global surplus could persist put further pressure on cocoa prices.

Source: Partronlar Dünyası/ Prepared by: İlayda Gök