Geneva – July 2025 — The World Trade Organization (WTO) has reported a significant rise in global goods trade volume in the first quarter of 2025, driven by front-loaded imports ahead of newly announced tariffs by the United States.
According to the WTO’s latest data, global merchandise trade volume increased by 3.6% compared to the previous quarter and 5.3% year-over-year during the first three months of 2025.
The surge in trade was largely attributed to importers accelerating purchases before new reciprocal tariffs, announced by the U.S. on April 2, took effect. This front-loading behavior notably boosted demand in North America, leading to a strong uptick in global trade activity.
Import Growth Varies by Region
Regional import growth in Q1 2025 was uneven:
• North America led with a remarkable 13.4% increase,
• Followed by Africa at 5.1%,
• South and Central America and the Caribbean at 3.6%,
• Middle East at 3%,
• Europe at 1.3%,
• and Asia at 1.1%.
Middle East Leads in Export Growth
On the export side, the Middle East recorded the strongest growth at 6.3%, followed by:
• Asia at 5.6%,
• South America at 3.2%,
• Africa at 2.5%,
• and North America at 1.8%.
Office Equipment, Chemicals Lead Product Growth
In terms of product categories, the highest annual growth was seen in:
• Office and telecommunications equipment with 16%,
• Chemicals at 12%,
• Apparel at 7%.
Meanwhile, the dollar value of global merchandise trade, measured by non-seasonally adjusted exports, rose by 4% year-over-year in Q1.
Slower Growth Expected for Rest of 2025
Despite a strong start, the WTO expects a significant slowdown in trade growth over the remainder of the year. Economists point to high inventory levels and the dampening effect of tariffs on import demand as key reasons.
In its updated mid-June forecast, the WTO projects that global merchandise trade volume will grow by just 0.1% for the full year 2025.
Source: Bloomberght/ Prepared by: İlayda Gök