Following the Central Bank of Turkiye’s latest inflation report, Goldman Sachs and Citi analysts provide insights on expected economic trends, including interest rates and inflation for the coming years.
Goldman Sachs and Citi have shared their forecasts on Turkiye’s economic outlook in response to the Central Bank of Turkiye’s (CBRT) latest inflation report. Citi analysts predict that the CBRT will maintain current interest rates until November, while Goldman Sachs economists anticipate inflation will drop to 36% by the end of the year, though they caution that risks remain skewed to the upside.
In their analysis of the CBRT’s third inflation report of the year, Goldman Sachs economists highlighted that the bank has not altered its year-end inflation forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026. The report suggests that inflation will decline to 36% by the end of 2023, but notes that the potential for upward risks still exists.
According to BloombergHT, the report stated, “We witnessed a downward surprise in inflation during June and July. With the slowdown in economic activity and improved inflation expectations among households, we expect price pressures to significantly ease for the remainder of the year.”
Interest Rate Forecast:
Citi analysts also noted that the CBRT’s inflation projections remain unchanged, with the bank expecting strong disinflation in 2025. They foresee no changes to interest rates until November, with a year-end policy rate forecast of 45%.
CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan, during the presentation of the third Inflation Report of the year, confirmed that the bank has maintained its year-end inflation forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 38%, 14%, and 9% respectively. Karahan reiterated the central bank’s commitment to maintaining tight monetary policy until price stability is firmly established.
Source: Dunya.com / Prepared by Irem Yildiz