International credit rating agency Moody’s predicted that the Turkish economy will grow 4.2% this year, 2.6% next year and 3% in 2025. It was stated that global economic growth is expected to slow down next year.
Moody’s published its Global Macro Outlook 2024-25 Report with the title “G20’s growth dynamics are diverging amid the ongoing global slowdown.”
The report stated that global growth will slow down in 2024 as high interest rates spread to the real economy through credit channels.
The report stated that inflation will continue to cool as demand slows down in 2024 as central banks maintain their tight policy stance, and noted that global growth is expected to strengthen in 2025 unless there are unexpected shocks.
The report stated that the growth rate of G20 economies is expected to be 2.8% this year, 2.1% next year and 2.6% in 2025.
In its forecasts published in August, Moody’s predicted that G20 economies would grow 2.5% this year and 2.1% next year.
The report stated that the developed economies of the G20 are estimated to grow 1.7% this year, 1% next year and 1.8% in 2025, developing economies are expected to grow by 4.3% this year, 3.7% next year and 3.8% in 2025.
US economic growth expected to slow next year
The report stated that the economic slowdown will be irregular and that the growth of the US economy remains strong but will slow down in 2024. The report stated that the growth expectation of the US economy was increased from 1.9% to 2.4% this year, and remained at 1% next year. It was estimated that the US economy would grow by 2% in 2025.
The report states that the Eurozone will be hit harder in 2023 and its economic growth will remain weak in 2024. It was noted that the growth forecast for the regional economy was maintained at 0.7% for this year, and was reduced from 1.2% to 1.1% for next year. It was predicted that the Eurozone economy would grow by 1.7% in 2025.
The report stated that the Chinese economy is expected to reach the 5% growth target in 2023, but growth is estimated to decrease to 4% in 2024 and 2025.
Turkiye is estimated to grow by 4.2% this year
In Moody’s report, it was noted that the Turkish economy is expected to grow by 4.2% this year, 2.6% next year and 3% in 2025.
The credit rating agency had previously predicted that the Turkish economy would grow by 4.2% this year and 3% next year.
Inflation expected to return to target in most G20 economies by end 2025
On the other hand, the report stated that the recent rise in bond yields will be partially reversed, and that the US 10-year bond interest rate is expected to decline to the long-term balance of around 4% in 2024 due to the falling growth rate and inflation bringing interest rate cuts closer.
The report noted that policy rates for major central banks reached their peak with the downward trend in inflation.
The report stated that inflation will continue to decline and that inflation is expected to return to the target in most G20 economies by the end of 2025.
The report warned that climate or geopolitical events could lead to fluctuations caused by sudden increases in energy and food prices.
Source: Trthaber / Prepared by Irem Yildiz