Singapore — The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned that global jet fuel supply and prices will take months to stabilize, even if critical energy routes return to normal operations.
Speaking at an industry event, IATA Director General Willie Walsh stated that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route, would not immediately resolve disruptions in the jet fuel market. According to Walsh, while crude oil prices may decline quickly, the recovery of refined fuel supply chains will take significantly longer.
The recent conflict in the Middle East severely disrupted refinery operations and fuel logistics, leading to a sharp increase in jet fuel prices and supply shortages worldwide. Even with a ceasefire in place and oil flows expected to resume, the damage to refining capacity means that supply constraints will persist in the near term.
Walsh emphasized that the aviation industry is already feeling the impact, noting that jet fuel is one of the largest cost components for airlines, typically accounting for around 25–30% of operating expenses.
He also pointed out a strong link between fuel prices and airline ticket costs, suggesting that passengers may continue to face elevated fares as airlines struggle to absorb higher fuel expenses.
Despite the challenges, IATA does not expect a crisis on the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the organization cautions that the market recovery will not be immediate, drawing comparisons instead to past global shocks where normalization took several months.
Outlook
IATA expects that even under stable geopolitical conditions, restoring jet fuel supply chains and balancing prices will require time, leaving airlines and travelers exposed to continued cost pressures in the short term.
Source: Patronlar Dünyası/ Prepared by: İlayda Gök