Paris, July 11, 2025 — Global oil demand growth is expected to slow significantly in 2025, marking the weakest increase since 2009, excluding the pandemic-hit year of 2020, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest Oil Market Report.
The IEA forecasts global oil demand will rise by approximately 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, reaching 103.682 million bpd. This represents a downward revision from the agency’s previous estimate of a 720,000 bpd increase.
The revised outlook is largely attributed to weaker-than-expected deliveries in the second quarter. During that period, global oil demand increased by only 550,000 bpd compared to the same quarter in 2024—half of the 1.1 million bpd rise seen in Q1. The first-quarter surge was driven by unusually cold winter conditions in OECD countries, which spurred higher consumption.
However, in recent months, a noticeable slowdown in global demand has emerged, particularly in developing countries. Although the full economic impact of trade tariffs remains unclear, the largest quarterly declines were observed in countries most directly affected by trade tensions—namely China, Japan, South Korea, the U.S., and Mexico. In contrast, emerging economies outside Europe and Asia showed greater resilience in oil demand.
The IEA’s projection of a 700,000 bpd growth this year would mark the smallest annual increase since the 2008–2009 financial crisis, barring the anomalous decline during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The agency expects this modest pace of growth to continue into the second half of 2025.
Looking ahead to 2026, oil demand is forecast to grow by 720,000 bpd, reaching 104.404 million bpd, amid expectations of looser global economic policies.
Global Oil Supply Surged by 950,000 bpd in June
According to the IEA, global oil supply in June rose sharply by around 950,000 bpd from the previous month, reaching 105.62 million bpd.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased its crude oil supply by approximately 420,000 bpd to 28.26 million bpd in June. Meanwhile, OPEC’s production of other (non-crude) conventional oil remained flat at 5.63 million bpd, bringing the group’s total supply to 33.89 million bpd.
Non-OPEC countries contributed an additional 530,000 bpd in June, pushing total non-OPEC supply to 71.73 million bpd.
OPEC+ Drove the Bulk of June’s Output Gains
Roughly 500,000 bpd of June’s overall supply growth came from the OPEC+ alliance, which includes both OPEC members and allied non-OPEC producers.
Saudi Arabia led the increase, boosting its crude output by 700,000 bpd. Smaller increases were also seen in Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the United Arab Emirates. However, these gains were partly offset by a steep 400,000 bpd drop in Iran’s production and additional declines in Venezuela.
As a result, OPEC+ crude oil output rose by 500,000 bpd from May, reaching 42.75 million bpd. Crude production from non-OPEC+ countries also rose by around 450,000 bpd to 54.61 million bpd, with Canadian output and seasonal biofuel production offsetting declines in Colombia and the U.S.
In year-on-year terms, global oil production in June increased by 2.9 million bpd, with 1.9 million bpd of that growth coming from OPEC+ countries.
Source:Anadolu Ajansı/ Prepared by:İlayda Gök