Ankara – April 17, 2026
Inflation expectations in Turkey have increased, according to the April 2026 Market Participants Survey released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
Year-End Inflation Increases
The survey showed that participants revised their year-end inflation (CPI) expectations upward. In the previous survey period, the forecast stood at 24.11%, while the latest data indicates an increase to 25.38%.
Medium-Term Expectations Also Edge Higher
Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose slightly from 22.10% to 22.17%, while 24-month expectations increased from 17.11% to 17.30%, pointing to a continued upward revision in medium-term outlooks.
Signals of Persistent Inflationary Pressures
The upward revisions suggest that inflationary pressures remain persistent despite ongoing monetary tightening efforts. Analysts interpret the data as an indication that disinflation may take longer than previously anticipated.
The survey also reflects cautious sentiment among market participants regarding price stability and macroeconomic conditions.
Broader Economic Expectations
In addition to inflation, the survey highlighted other macroeconomic expectations:
- The Turkish lira is expected to weaken slightly over the next 12 months.
- Growth expectations for 2026 were revised marginally downward.
Policy Implications
The rise in inflation expectations may increase pressure on the central bank ahead of its upcoming monetary policy decisions, as markets closely watch whether additional tightening steps will be taken to anchor expectations.
Source: Patronlar Dünyası/ Prepared by: İlayda Gök