With the gradual cooling of the weather, it is wondered when the snowfall will occur. The harsh winter months will show their effect this year and this year will be the year of ‘La Nina’. Forecasts for expected snowfall will be seen in the interior in the coming weeks, and dates have been given for Istanbul and Ankara.
During La Nina years, as trade winds push the warm water off the coasts, more of the cold water at the bottom emerges. Forecasts on the cold and rainy coming winter months are also based on the effects of these years. Because, we have brought this issue to the agenda in our previous news.
According to the news of Benginur Ikbal Akgul from TRT News; While it is expected that January will be harsh, a mild weather is expected as of February. Because, after 30 years, the longest La Nina years will lose its effect.
COLD WATER POOL CREATED LA NINA
Climate Scientist Dr. Okan Bozyurt from Afyon Kocatepe University, Department of Geography, stated the La Nina effect in our news last month and made his predictions that the winter months would be harsh. Bozyurt repeats this forecast and explains the trade winds that cause this effect.
“There is a system of perpetual winds caused by the Earth’s rotation on its axis. One of them is trade winds. The importance of trades in the climate system is undeniably great.
These winds blow from east to west every year, especially in regions close to the equator. That is easterly winds. When they blow from the land to the sea in South America, they drag the hot water mass outward, especially on the coasts of Peru and Chile. And a layer of cold water comes out from the bottom. But sometimes trades blow faster than they should. Then, a force emerges that we call La Nina, that is, the cold water layer, where the temperatures fall below the seasonal normals, gradually expands and creates a cold water pool. We call it La Nina.”
“COVERING THE SPEED OF GLOBAL WARMING”
Another feature of La Nina is its effect on global warming. Bozyurt says that it is also very important that the temperature slows down.
“Of course, when the cold water pool is formed, this time it takes the energy from the atmosphere to warm up. And as a result, the global average temperature of the world is falling.
The warm waters that drifted towards the Australian side, this time begin to come back and a hot water pool is formed in the Pacific Ocean. On the contrary, this causes an energy transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere. And so it raises the temperature of the atmosphere. The global average temperature is peaking this time. In other words, it contributes to global warming. But La Nina prevents global warming. More precisely, it masks the speed of global warming. That’s why La Nina is so important.”
“IT WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST WINTER”
One of the most defining features of these years is the cold winter months. Looking at the previous La Nina years, it is also seen that it was cold and dry. But this time the long La Nina had lasted this long 30 years ago before.
“When we look at the previous La Nina years in Turkiye, the temperature values are quite low. In the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, where Turkiye is located, winters are cold but dry during some La Nina years. So we cannot talk about a very rainy winter. But it is usually quite cold in terms of temperature values.
But these last years have been the longest-lasting La Nina period. Previous La Ninas hadn’t lasted this long. That long-lasting La Nina happened in 1990. It was a three-year period: 1989, 1990, 1991…
At that time, the world’s global average temperature was adversely affected. So it was negatively affected. Now, La Nina has been effective for 2-3 years.
This year, the oscillations made by the internal westerly winds will also be effective. In other words, this year will actually be both rainy and cold again. I expect a little colder than last winter.”
“LA NINA WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE”
Bozyurt also informs that these years, which were the cause of cold weather, will lose their effect. The coming years may now be warmer winters.
“La Nina actually started to slow down. So it doesn’t continue at the same pace. Most likely, these balances will change next year. After the average years passed, we think that the temperatures may increase even more. So the opposite of La Nina will bring warm winters. And I think it might bring the hot summers into the agenda.”
“MILD TEMPERATURE IS COMING IN FEBRUARY”
Bozyurt points out that after a harsh January, February will be mild. The reason for this prediction is that La Nina started to lose its influence…
“Things seem to change after January, that is, in February. Especially starting from February, mild winter conditions may come to the fore again. This cold winter will be effective until the end of January. And I think February and March may be a little milder this year than last year. Because La Nina is gradually losing its influence.”
“COLD SYSTEM IS COMING AFTER 25 OCTOBER”
So, when does the snowfall come? Bozyurt draws attention to the end of October in this regard and gives a date. There is a high probability of a cold wave coming between October 26, 27 and 28.
“A cold and rainy system is already coming next weekend. In other words, daytime temperatures in the interior will drop to 11-12 degrees. Of course, the night temperatures will also decrease, but not by much. Generally, precipitation will be in the form of rain and showers. But high inland, sleet and snow can occur. But we expect the actual system after 25 October. In other words, there is a possibility of a stronger cold air wave coming from the north, like October 26-27-28.”
“SNOW MAY BE COMING TO ANKARA, IT IS YET EARLY FOR ISTANBUL”
Bozyurt states that with the coming cold air mass, the first snowfall may occur in the inner parts and even in the city centers in the high parts of Ankara. However, he adds that it is still early to talk about snow in Istanbul, but that the first snowfall may come in late November or early December.
“THE SOUTH OF THE TURKIYE WILL ALSO BE COLD, IT CAN SNOW IN ANTAKYA”
It is predicted that the winter months will be low temperature in the southern parts. “Especially, if not in December, it may snow again in the coastal areas in January”.
“So snowfall can be seen in the coastal areas of Antalya, Mersin, Adana, and even in Antakya. Therefore, there may be more snowfall in İzmir this winter.”
POSSIBILITY OF OCTOBER SNOW IN EUROPE
Europe is also affected by La Nina. Snowfall is likely to start early this year.
“Europe will be colder and wetter. My guess is that I expect a cooling in the axis of Eastern Europe, Russia and Turkiye rather than Northwest Europe, in other words the Eastern Mediterranean basin, such as Russia and Turkiye in the east of Europe. Even in mid-October in Europe, snowfall can begin.”
Source: Milliyet / Translated by Irem Yildiz