The Medium Term Program was published in the Official Gazette today. The program also included the government’s forecasts for growth, unemployment, inflation and the dollar/TL rate.
The Medium Term Program (2023-2025), prepared by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance and the Strategy and Budget Presidency, was published in the Official Gazette.
In the program, the economic growth forecast was 5% for 2022 and 2023, and 5.5% for 2024 and 2025.
Unemployment rate projections were announced as 10.8% for 2022, 10.4% for 2023, 9.9% for 2024 and 9.6% for 2025.
Year-end consumer inflation forecasts were 65% for 2022, 24.9% for 2023, 13.8% for 2024, and 9.9% for 2025.
The estimates for the ratio of current account deficit to national income were 5.9% for 2022, 2.5% for 2023, 1.4% for 2024, and 0.9% for 2025.
The government also shared its estimates for national income in TL and US dollars. According to these estimates, the government’s average dollar/TL rate estimates were 16.62 for 2022, 21.52 for 2023, 24.62 for 2024, and 25.76 for 2025.
NO CURRENT EXCESS TARGET IN MTP
The government’s biggest promise, which lowered interest rates to provide cheap loans to companies, but exploded inflation and exchange rates, was to run a current account surplus, but this target was not included in the MTP.
Expecting the current account deficit to rise from $13.6 billion in 2021 to $47.3 billion in 2022, the government expects a deficit of $22 billion in 2023, $13.7 billion in 2024, and $10 billion in 2025.
ENERGY BILL TO EXCEED $100 BILLION
According to the OVP, the government expects the energy bill to exceed $100 billion this year.
The government, which estimates that energy imports, which were $50.7 billion in 2021, will increase to $103.5 billion in 2022, an energy bill of $85 billion in 2023, $76.3 billion in 2024 and $70.9 billion in 2025 is expected.
The government expects tourism revenue to rise from $20.8 billion in 2021 to $34 billion in 2022, $45 billion in 2023, $55 billion in 2023, and $62 billion in 2024.
BUDGET DEFICIT EXPECTED OF ₺461.2 BILLION IN 2022
Income, expenditure and balance estimates for the central government budget were also included in the MTP. Accordingly, it is predicted that the central government budget deficit, which was ₺201.5 billion in 2021, will increase to ₺461.2 billion in 2022. Deficit forecasts of ₺659.4 billion for 2023, ₺582.7 billion for 2024 and ₺409 billion for 2025 were given.
It is predicted that the interest expenditures of the central government, which was ₺180.9 billion in 2021, will increase to ₺329.8 billion in 2022, to ₺565.6 billion in 2023 and to ₺697.8 billion in 2024 and to ₺774.5 billion in 2025.
Source: Sozcu.com / Translated by Irem Yildiz