April 13, 2026
Global oil supply experienced a major shock in March as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recorded its fastest production decline in more than four decades, according to its latest monthly report.
OPEC’s crude oil output fell by approximately 7.88 million barrels per day, dropping to 20.79 million barrels per day compared to the previous month. This marks the steepest decline since the 1980s.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Decline
The sharp contraction in production has been largely attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions and conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which have disrupted oil operations and logistics across key producing regions.
Major Producers Hit Hard
The largest production losses were recorded in key Gulf producers:
- Iraq saw output fall by about 2.56 million barrels per day, dropping to roughly 1.63 million barrels per day
- Saudi Arabia experienced a decline of 2.31 million barrels per day, bringing production down to 7.8 million barrels per day
- United Arab Emirates output decreased by 1.53 million barrels per day
- Kuwait recorded a drop of 1.37 million barrels per day
- Iran posted a smaller decline of 182,000 barrels per day
Limited Increases Elsewhere
In contrast, some OPEC members reported modest increases:
- Venezuela raised production by 79,000 barrels per day
- Nigeria increased output by 22,000 barrels per day
However, these gains were insufficient to offset the widespread declines across the group.
OPEC+ Production Also Falls
The broader OPEC+ alliance, which includes non-OPEC producers, also saw a significant reduction. Total output dropped by 7.7 million barrels per day, reaching approximately 35.05 million barrels per day.
Demand Outlook Remains Unchanged
Despite the supply shock, OPEC maintained its global oil demand forecast. The organization expects demand to increase by 1.38 million barrels per day this year, reaching around 106.5 million barrels per day.
Growth is projected to be driven mainly by non-OECD countries, while demand in OECD nations is expected to rise more modestly.
Sourca: Patronlar Dünyası/ Prepared by: İlayda Gök