April 2, 2026
OPEC+ is preparing contingency plans to stabilize global oil markets in the event of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical النفط transit routes, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Two OPEC+ sources told Reuters that eight member countries are expected to evaluate a possible production increase during a meeting scheduled for Sunday. The move aims to ensure market balance if the strait—currently disrupted due to escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran—resumes operations.
Production Increase Under Consideration
The group had previously agreed in March to a modest output increase of 206,000 barrels per day for April, following concerns over oversupply earlier in the year. However, the ongoing conflict has since triggered what analysts describe as one of the largest supply disruptions in modern history.
Major producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates were forced to cut production due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for over 20% of global oil transit.
Oil Prices Volatile Amid Geopolitical Tensions
The supply shock pushed Brent crude prices close to $120 per barrel, marking a four-year high. Prices later eased to around $100 following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting a possible end to the conflict, before rising again after renewed military statements.
Meanwhile, Russian oil production has also been disrupted by drone attacks, adding further uncertainty to global supply.
Preparedness Without Immediate Signals
Despite no clear indication that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon, OPEC+ is expected to signal readiness by approving production increases “on paper.” This would allow the group to respond quickly if tanker traffic resumes.
One source stated that the decision would demonstrate the group’s ability to react swiftly: “At least we should be able to respond on paper.”
Limited Participation in Decision-Making
Although OPEC+ consists of 22 member countries, only eight key producers—including Russia, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—are actively involved in monthly output decisions. Some of these countries have limited capacity to increase production and have been less affected by the Hormuz disruption.
Upcoming Meetings
In addition to Sunday’s meeting of the eight-member group, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is also expected to convene. Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to hold talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, highlighting ongoing high-level coordination among major oil producers.
Source: Patronlar Dünyası/ Prepared by: İlayda Gök