Signs point to deteriorating growth outlook in major economies: OECD

Continued uncertainties related to Ukraine war, renewed COVID-19 threats, supply chain disruptions are shadowing economies, says OECD

The OECD on Tuesday said leading indicators keep pointing to a deteriorating growth outlook in most major economies amid continued uncertainties related to the war in Ukraine, renewed COVID-19 threats, and supply chain disruptions.

“Dragged down by historically high inflation, low consumer confidence and declining share price indices, the CLIs remain below trend and continue to anticipate a loss of growth momentum in most large OECD economies,” said the OECD, citing its Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs),meant to predict turning points in economic activity over the next six to nine months.

This is the case for Canada, the UK, and US, along with in the euro area as a whole, including France, Germany, and Italy.

In Japan, on the other hand, the CLI continues to point to stable growth around trend.

Among major emerging-market economies, the CLI is still falling in China (industrial sector), albeit indicating signs of stabilization, it said.

The OECD composite leading indicators are cyclical indicators based on a range of forward-looking indicators such as order books, building permits, confidence indicators, long-term interest rates, new car registrations, and many more.


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