S&P Global Ratings said developments related to the liquidation of certain investment funds in Türkiye are not expected to create downward pressure on the country’s credit rating.
S&P Global Ratings Lead Analyst Karen Vartapetov and Financial Institutions Director Regina Argenio said the ongoing investigation into investment funds had not resulted in significant macroeconomic effects and that the process was under control.
Vartapetov said the regulatory measures and policy response introduced by Turkish authorities in connection with the investigation had been “rapid and convincing.” She added that there had been no significant adverse reaction in the financial system, foreign exchange market, dollarization or banking liquidity.
According to Vartapetov, if the fund-related turmoil remains limited to a narrow asset class, it would not represent a major negative development for investor sentiment or Türkiye’s credit rating.
S&P expects 3% economic growth
Vartapetov said S&P expects Türkiye’s average inflation rate to stand at around 30% in 2026, while economic growth is expected to be close to 3%.
She also noted that the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s improving foreign-exchange reserves were supportive of the country’s credit rating.
Impact mainly seen in equities
Argenio said the biggest impact of the fund investigation had been felt in the stock market. However, she noted that equity valuations had stabilized following the initial correction.
She said authorities had provided liquidity to the market and appointed banks to oversee the liquidation of the funds, describing the policy response so far as “quite strong.”
S&P rating review expected on October 16
S&P is expected to publish its second credit rating and outlook review of Türkiye for 2026 on October 16.
In its most recent assessment in April, S&P affirmed Türkiye’s sovereign credit ratings at BB-/B and maintained the outlook at stable.
The fund investigation has continued to draw attention in Turkish financial markets. Reuters reported that authorities had ordered the liquidation of more than 100 investment funds, with the investigation also covering alleged market manipulation and irregular fund-related activities.
Source: Patronlar Dünyası/ Prepared by: İlayda Gök