The Central Bank of Turkiye updated inflation, economic growth & exchange rate forecasts

The CBRT withdrew its dollar and inflation forecasts for next year. The Central Bank lowered its dollar forecast for the end of this year.

The Central Bank published the Market Participants Survey for December, which was conducted with 44 participants consisting of real and financial sector representatives and professionals.

The CPI increase expectation in December, which was 3.16% last month, decreased to 2.69% in this survey period. The expectation for an increase in CPI for the end of the current year, covering the January-December period, also decreased from 68.06% to 66.80%, after 24 months, it fell from 20.76% to 20.56%.


While the year-end dollar/TL expectation of the participants was 18.78, the dollar/TL expectation after 12 months decreased from 23.35 to 22.77. According to the previous estimates of the CBRT, this end-of-path dollar estimate was ₺19.54. The Central Bank’s forecast for next year’s dollar was ₺23 and 61 kurus. This figure was also revised and reduced to ₺22.77.

The year-end current account deficit expectation, which was ₺48.8 billion in the previous survey period, decreased to ₺46.7 billion in this period. The current account deficit expectation for the next year was ₺30.6 billion.


While the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increase expectation for the current year decreased from 5.1% to 5%, it was maintained at 4.1% for the next year. The expectations for the CBRT’s policy rate for the end of the current month and for the next 3 months were also determined as 9%. The policy rate expectation for the end of next year was 14.86%.

Source: Yenicag / Translated by Irem Yildiz

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