Growth, inflation, and trade data to dominate Turkiye’s economic landscape in September, with the Medium-Term Program set to be unveiled.
As September approaches, Turkiye braces for a packed economic agenda, with markets eagerly anticipating key data releases and policy updates. The upcoming month promises to shed light on the nation’s economic trajectory through various indicators, including GDP growth, inflation rates, and export figures. Additionally, the highly anticipated Medium-Term Program (OVP), which will outline Turkiye’s economic roadmap for the next three years, is expected to be released.
Growth Data in Focus
The first significant data point comes on September 2nd, with the release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Q2 2024. Turkiye’s economy grew by 5.7% in Q1, and expectations for Q2 indicate a more moderate growth rate of around 3%, according to economists surveyed by AA Finance. These figures will be closely watched, especially in the context of ongoing economic reforms.
Export and Trade Figures
Simultaneously, the Ministry of Trade and the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM) will announce the provisional foreign trade data for August. July saw a 13.8% year-on-year increase in exports, reaching a record-high for that month. The latest figures will provide insights into whether this momentum has continued, particularly in the face of global economic challenges.
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Inflation data for August will be released on September 3rd by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). The previous month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 61.78% annual increase, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 41.37%. Economists predict a slight decline in inflation, estimating a drop to 52.20% annually. The results will play a crucial role in shaping the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye’s (CBRT) future monetary policies.
Upcoming Budget and Policy Decisions
Mid-September will see the announcement of the central government budget realizations for August, followed by the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting on September 19th. These events will provide further clarity on the government’s fiscal stance and the direction of interest rates.
The Unveiling of the Medium-Term Program (OVP)
Perhaps the most anticipated event of September is the unveiling of the Medium-Term Program (OVP). This program will set out Turkiye’s economic goals for 2025-2027, covering key areas such as inflation, employment, growth, and trade. The OVP will be critical in aligning the country’s economic policies with its long-term objectives.
- Inflation Data: Expected on September 3rd, likely to show a decrease from previous levels.
- Trade Figures: Watch for August data revealing the impact of global economic conditions.
- Budget Announcements: Mid-September insights into fiscal policy and spending.
Investment Outlook
As Turkiye navigates this dense economic agenda, investors will be closely monitoring these developments to gauge future opportunities. The data released in September could have significant implications for various sectors, from industrial production to foreign investment.
Source: AA / Prepared by Irem Yildiz