While a busy economic data agenda awaits Turkiye from next week, eyes will be on growth, exports and inflation on the one hand, and on the Medium Term Program (MTP), which is expected to be announced in September, on the other.
Despite the break to be held on Tuesday, August 30th, due to Victory Day, the economy agenda will become even more active.
On Monday, the economic confidence index for August will be announced. The index decreased by 0.2% to 93.4% in July.
The eyes of the markets will be on the growth data for the second quarter of the year, which will be announced on Wednesday, August 31. The gross domestic product (GDP) data for the April-June period of this year will be announced by TURKSTAT at 10.00. The Turkish economy grew by 11% last year and 7.3% in the first quarter of this year.
Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati reminded the 7.3% growth figure achieved in the first quarter, “We expect a growth higher than this in the second quarter.”
Export will be announced from Gaziantep
Temporary foreign trade data for August is expected to be announced on Friday, September 2 by the Ministry of Commerce and the Turkish Exporters’ Assembly.
Foreign trade data will be announced by the Minister of Trade Mehmet Mus and the President of the Turkish Exporters Assembly Mustafa Gultepe in Gaziantep.
Exports increased by 13.4% in July compared to the same month of the previous year and became $18.6 billion, while the highest export figure was reached in July. Exports broke a record in 7 months of this year.
Inflation will be announced on September 5
TurkStat will announce inflation data for August on Monday, September 5th, as September 3 coincides with the weekend. In July, the consumer price index increased by 79.60% annually, 2.37% monthly, and the domestic producer price index increased by 144.61% annually and 5.17% monthly.
Unemployment figures for July will be announced on Monday, September 12. Unemployment rate was 10.3% with a 0.3 percentage point decrease in June.
The Central Bank’s balance of payments statistics for July will also be announced on the same day. The current account had a deficit of $3 billion 458 million in June.
In terms of the effects of economic developments on the private sector, turnover indices, retail sales indices and industrial production index for July, which will be announced on Tuesday, September 13, will also be followed closely. Industrial production increased by 8.5% annually and 1.5% monthly in June.
Central government budget realizations for August will be announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance on Thursday, September 15. On the same day, housing sales statistics will also be announced.
Eyes will also be on the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meeting to be held on September 22. The Board had reduced the one-week repo rate (policy rate) from 14% to 13%.
The roadmap of the economy becomes clear
In addition to macroeconomic indicators, the details of the MTP, which is expected to be announced in September and which is the three-year road map of the Turkish economy, will be followed closely. With the MTP, basic macro indicators such as inflation, employment, growth, exports and current account deficit for the 2023-2025 period will also be determined.
How the effects of global and regional problems on the economy will be reflected in the MTP and how they will affect the principles and targets of economic policies are also eagerly awaited. As the MTP and the Medium Term Plan are combined, the basic dimensions of the 2023 budget will also be determined.
While the preparations for the MTP at the last meeting of the Economic Coordination Board (EKK) were discussed, the Minister of Treasury and Finance Nebati announced that the MTP would be announced at the beginning of September.
Budget and bag bill agenda
With the announcement of the program, preparations for the central government budget for 2023 will also accelerate. Ministries will work on the budget in September, and the 2023 budget, which will be prepared by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance and the Strategy and Budget Presidency, will be presented to the Turkish Grand National Assembly on 17 October.
The economy management will also work intensively on the bag bill that will be presented to the Turkish Grand National Assembly after its opening on October 1st. The package bill that includes economic regulations will include issues such as a support package for the low-income, the regulation on the debts of the Credit and Hostels Institution, and the restructuring of the Price Stability Committee.
Social housing move to be announced
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will also announce the details of the biggest social housing move in the history of the Republic on September 13. With the project to be carried out under the leadership of the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, it is envisaged that citizens will own a house in 81 provinces as if they were paying rent. In the project, which will include housing, residential land and industrial sites, quotas will be allocated for young people, retirees, relatives of martyrs, veterans and the disabled.
Source: Trthaber / Translated by Irem Yildiz