A recent blog post by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) highlighted that when excluding the temporary impact of the Social Security Institution’s (SGK) Health Implementation Communiqué (SUT) regulation, the slowdown in annual consumer inflation is primarily driven by the decline in the core inflation trend.
The analysis, authored by TCMB Assistant Economists Merve Çapan, Orhun Özel, and Assistant Specialist Hakkı Yılmaz, was published on the Merkezin Güncesi blog.
Impact of SUT Regulation on Inflation Trends
To better understand inflation data, the study examined the effects of recent changes in medical co-payment fees on headline and core inflation indicators over the past two months.
The key findings include:
- On January 25, 2025, an SUT regulation increased the public hospital co-payment fee from 6.50 TL to 30 TL, and the private hospital co-payment fee from 15 TL to 50 TL.
- On February 23, 2025, another revision was introduced, retroactively effective from January 15, reducing the average co-payment fee to 10 TL.
The SUT regulation affected two components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the healthcare category:
- Public hospital medical co-payment fees
- Private hospital doctor consultation fees (covered under General Health Insurance)
While the public hospital co-payment increase had a significant impact on consumer inflation, the rise in private hospital fees had a minimal effect, as these fees were already relatively high.
SUT Regulation’s Effect on CPI
The study compared the realized CPI with a scenario where no regulatory changes had occurred to measure the impact of SUT revisions:
- January inflation increased by 0.56 percentage points due to the changes.
- February inflation saw a 0.29 percentage point decline as a result of the latest adjustment.
- The cumulative effect of SUT revisions on annual inflation was 0.76 percentage points in January and 0.34 percentage points in February.
This analysis underscores the temporary impact of healthcare cost adjustments on inflation, while the core inflation trend remains the key driver behind the slowdown in annual CPI.
Source: Foreks/ Prepared by: İlayda Gök