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Turkiye’s Inflation Expectations for Year-End Adjusted to 43.52%

Central Bank Survey Reveals Revised Economic Projections Amid Stabilizing Expectations

Turkiye’s year-end inflation expectation has been adjusted to 43.52%, according to the latest Market Participants Survey conducted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye (CBRT). The June survey, which included input from 68 representatives from the real and financial sectors as well as professionals, highlighted a slight decrease in inflation expectations compared to previous figures.

The anticipated rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June fell slightly to 2.52% from last month’s 2.56%. The overall year-end CPI increase projection decreased from 43.64% to 43.52%.

Looking further ahead, the 12-month CPI increase expectation declined from 33.21% to 31.79%, and the 24-month forecast dropped from 21.33% to 20.33%.

In terms of currency valuation, the participants revised their year-end USD/TRY forecast down from 38.7771 to 37.7463, while the 12-month projection also saw a decrease from 41.7997 to 41.4115.

The expected year-end current account deficit also improved, dropping from $30.5 billion to $29 billion. Next year’s current account deficit expectation has also been adjusted down to $28.4 billion.

Regarding policy interest rates, the forecast for the end of the current month and the next three months remains at 50%. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth expectation for the current year is steady at 3.3%, with next year’s projection also unchanged at 3.7%.

The 12-month forward policy interest rate expectation decreased from 37.11% to 35.90%, indicating a cautious optimism among participants regarding future monetary policy adjustments.

Source: Trthaber / Prepared by Irem Yildiz

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