International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings increased its medium-term potential growth forecast for the Turkish economy from 3.9% to 4.1%.
Fitch Ratings published a report titled “Potential Growth of Emerging Markets Weakens as the Chinese Economy Slows”.
In the report, the organization reduced its medium-term potential growth forecast for 10 developing countries to an average of 4%. The organization’s previous growth forecast was 4.3.
The main factor in the decline in growth forecast was the expected decline in China’s supply side growth potential.
In this context, China’s potential growth forecast until 2027 is increased from 5.3 to 4.6%, Russia’s from 1.6 to 0.8%, South Korea’s from 2.3 to 2.1%. and South Africa’s from 1.2 to 1%.
However, the potential growth forecasts of the Indian and Mexican economies increased from 5.5 to 6.2% and from 1.4 to 2%, respectively.
Turkiye was one of the countries whose medium-term potential growth forecast was increased.
Fitch Ratings increased Turkiye’s potential growth forecast in this period from 3.9% to 4.1%.
The potential growth forecast for the Polish economy was increased from 2.6 to 3%, for Brazil from 1.5 to 1.7%, and for Indonesia from 4.7 to 4.9%.
The credit agency pointed out that, with the exception of Brazil and Poland, the latest growth forecasts were below the potential growth levels predicted before Covid-19 for these 10 developing countries.
The organization reported that this situation reflects worsening demographic trends and the legacy of disruptions caused by the epidemic, and revisions to estimates of capital stock and productivity growth are also reflected in growth estimates.
Source: Trthaber / Prepared by Irem Yildiz