This week, Turkiye’s inflation route will be drawn. January inflation figures will be announced. The first inflation report of the year will come from the Central Bank. So, what are the expectations for the first inflation of the year? What kind of picture emerges in the inflation report?
We are entering an important week for inflation.
January consumer price index will be announced on Monday. On Thursday, the Central Bank will publish the first inflation report of the year.
“January inflation may remain below expectations”
The latest inflation figures indicated a monthly level of 2.93%in December.
So what is expected in inflation for January?
Economist Tonguc Erbas said the following about the January inflation expectation:
“It may be below market expectations. Because we did not see any exchange rate movement that could create inflation in January, but of course, a salary regulation may have a reflection on the prices in the market in the new year. While there is an inflation expectation that may even approach double digits, we can say that it may be close to 6%. It seems that what we are aiming for will be a downward inflation outlook that is not far outside the developments after May.”
“I do not think there will be any change in the announced targets”
The inflation report to be announced on Thursday is also important. The bank’s forecasts will shed light on the monetary policy route.
Currently, the year-end inflation expectation is at 36%. So, will there be a revision?
Erbas answered this question as follows:
“If there is not much deviation, I do not think that there will be a big deviation from the targets announced in the previous report in January inflation in the report. In fact, I predict that the 70-75% peak and return from the peak scenario will continue. Most likely after next week, we will understand that we are not experiencing an inflation process beyond the margins. I think we will experience an inflation report process with minor changes very similar to the Central Bank texts, compared to the previous one, so there will be a change in the target.”
Source: Trthaber / Prepared by Irem Yildiz