The peak driving season helped imports breach 400,000t in June for the first time since 2017, climbing by nearly two-thirds on the year to 409,300t, according to Vortexa, with supplies coming from Algeria, the US and Russia. Imports were also supported by stronger domestic industrial demand, which has increased since natural gas prices surged last year, luring users to switch to LPG and reducing LPG availability at local refineries.
State-run gas firm Botas’ regulated natural gas tariffs for industrial users rose eightfold on the year to a record high of 15,833 lira/000m³ ($1,470/000m³) in late 2022. Prices hovered at this level until early 2023 before deflating slightly, although June prices were still 4-5 times higher than 2021 levels.
Bulk LPG sales as a result rose above 50,000t in January and February apiece, to a record high of 55,500t in the latter, compared with an average of 8,000 t/month in 2020. Sales dipped to around 20,000t in April, the latest data from energy regulator EPDK show, and gas prices are expected to ease in the coming months, although they are unlikely to fall to 2020 levels and should rise for the 2023-24 winter.
Turkey’s LPG imports from Russia have continued to rise since the onset of the Ukraine war. They increased to about 64,000t in June, accounting for 16pc of the total, compared with around 20,000 t/month in 2022, Vortexa data show. Arrivals from Russia hit a new high of more than 300,000t in 2022, EPDK data show. But this has almost doubled on the year to about 160,000-180,000t in the first five months of 2023, traders say.
LPG imports to Turkiye were almost 50pc higheron the year at close to 2.1mn t in January-June, Vortexa data show. Should demand remain strong this summer and autumn,they are on course to surpass 4mn t in 2023, up from 3.34mn t last year.
Turkiye LPG imports
Image: trend