Moody’s revises up Turkish economic growth forecast to 4.2%, from 2.6%, for 2023

Growth estimate for 2024 also saw upward revision to 3% from 2%

Moody’s revised Turkish economic growth forecast to 4.2%, from 2.6%, for 2023, according to its Global Macro Outlook 2023-24 August update report released Thursday.

The global rating agency also made an upward revision to its Turkish economic growth forecast for 2023 to 3%, from 2% estimated in a May report.

“Economic activity in the first half of 2023 outpaced our expectations in multiple countries,” said the report, which listed Türkiye among the countries.

The agency, however, noted that it expects tight financial conditions to persist throughout the next year, “tapping brakes on global growth.”

Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the G-20 is estimated to slow to 2.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024, from 2.7% in 2022.

“Recession risk in the US has receded, but below-trend output is necessary for inflation to sustainably decline to Federal Reserve’s target,”said the report.

Moody’s raised its 2023 growth forecast for the American economy to 1.9%, from 1.1% in its May outlook.

“China’s economy is facing considerable growth challenges, causing us to cut our 2024 growth expectations,” the agency said, adding: “We have lowered our growth expectation for 2024 to 4.0% from 4.5%.”

“Inflation is declining as expected and will continue to recede over the next year, but risks remain,” the report said. “Major central banks will maintain a restrictive policy stance through 2024.”

Moody’s said upside risks to inflation from tight labor markets and resilient demand will keep the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England “vigilant.” It noted: “As economic activity has by and large held up well this year, elevated core inflation means central banks cannot be certain they have achieved their inflation mandates just yet.”


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button