Despite the expected decline in production, Türkiye’s olive oil producers do not anticipate serious supply problems thanks to olive oil in the stocks.
The national production is forecast to drop from 400,000 tons last year to around 150,000 tons in 2023, according to Fevzi Çondur, the head of the Aydın Commodity Exchange.
Poor olive harvest and resulting low olive production is not a unique problem to Türkiye. The world’s largest olive oil producers, Spain and Italy, also saw a sharp decline in the production last year, blaming largely on bad weather.
Olive oil production in Spain plunged from 1.6 million tons to 600,000 tons, while in Italy, output was down from 500,000 tons to less than 100,000 tons,according to Çondur.
However, despite the decline in production, consumers in Türkiye should not face a shortage of olive oil, said Alper Ahlat, the president of the Akhisar Commodity Exchange.
“Yes, our production is low this year, but we think we will get through this year without any problems, with olive oil in stock from last year,” Ahlat explained.
The key question is what happens wit
Prices are coming down abroad, according to Ahlat.
“Olive production is falling, that’s for sure. But on the other hand, consumption has also been declining due to high prices in the previous season.”
In the face of higher olive oil prices, consumers are turning to vegetable oils, Ahlat said, explaining why demand for olive oil is weakening.
He dismissed speculations that the price of olive oil may shoot up to 600 Turkish Liras ($21) per liter.
“The average price in the market is around 220 liras,” he said.
Türkiye has imposed a ban on bulk olive oil exports to ensure domestic supply.
Çondur, on the other hand, said that the price of olive oil on the market shelves may give some clues about the quality of the product, noting that “too low prices should be met with some suspicion.”
Tariş Olive and Olive Oil Association has set the olive oil purchase price at 295 liras per liter for this season, up from the previous season’s 81 liras.
The olive oil bought from Tariş should be sold at 320 liras in the markets, according to Çondur.
“If a five-liter box of olive oil is sold for 500 liras, there must be fraud here.”
“What consumers purchase at this price is certainly not olive oil, but some sort of product with chemicals added to it,” he said.