The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) has downwardly revised its crude oil price forecast for the year, citing an increase in global oil inventories.
According to the “February 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook Report” by the EIA, the average barrel price of the international benchmark Brent crude oil is expected to be $82.42 this year, down from the previously estimated $82.49 in the last report. Additionally, the average barrel price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is projected to be $77.68, compared to the previous estimate of $77.99.
While the EIA kept the barrel price forecast for Brent crude unchanged at $79.48 for the next year, it maintained WTI crude at $74.98.
The report anticipates a daily average decrease of 800,000 barrels in global oil stocks in the first quarter of this year due to OPEC+ production cuts, creating upward pressure on oil prices. Despite an expected slowdown in oil demand, global stocks are predicted to remain relatively balanced for the rest of the year, with production continuing to rise. Consequently, a gradual increase in global oil stocks is forecasted for the next year.
The outlook for global oil production suggests an increase of 550,000 barrels per day to reach 102.3 million barrels per day this year, and a further increase to 107.17 million barrels per day next year, marking a daily growth of 1.87 million barrels. The report also indicates that the end of existing OPEC+ production cuts at the end of this year could lead to a 700,000 barrel per day increase in global supply next year. However, the potential continuation of production cuts by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries to stabilize markets may limit this increase.
Non-OPEC oil production is expected to rise by 1.2 million barrels per day, with the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana leading the way.
In the U.S., which reached a record production level in December last year, crude oil production for this year has been downwardly revised to an average of 13.10 million barrels per day, with a forecast of 13.49 million barrels per day for the following year. The previous report in January had estimated daily production at 13.21 million barrels for this year and 13.44 million barrels for next year.
source: aa.com.tr / prepared by Melisa Beğiç